Demand Planning and Forecasting Workshop

Improve Forecasting with better Models and Diagnostics!

May 23rd (Wed) and 24th (Thur), 2012 - 2 Day Interactive Workshop in Boston, MA at The Four Points by Sheraton Boston/Norwood.

view and print seminar brochure (PDF)

In this specialized two-day course, we will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.

If you are a new demand planner looking to enhance your knowledge of business forecasting, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity!

Get skills you can use at work

We will explain and demonstrate best practices in model selection, illustrate how to use forecast error to improve model quality, and teach you how to reconcile top-down and bottom up forecasts.

Learn from industry experts

Each training day will also include an industry-specific presentation from a senior supply chain manager.

Network with peers

You will have ample opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.

Add to your credentials

Upon completion of the tutorial, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning and Forecasting.

There will be a bonus session on S&OP on day 2.

Detailed Outline of the Workshop:

Day 1

8:30AM to 5:00PM

Day 2

8:30AM to 4:30PM

7:30 AM Registration & Breakfast
8:30 AM Welcome
9:00 AM Demand Planning Overview
- Definition of Demand
- Introduction to Demand Planning- What, Why and How?
- The Service – Cost – Balance Model
- Distinction between Business Forecasting and Demand Planning
- What to forecast – shipments vs. orders
- Key Terminology – Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
- Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
- Demand Management
- Organization Structure and Culture
- Role of the Demand Forecaster
- Consensus and communication
10:30 AM Coffee Break
10:45 AM Data Analysis for demand forecasting
- Forecast Problem and Data collection
- Data cleaning challenges
- Data filtering
- Adjusting for historical shifts in demand
- Process to Identify Outliers
- Methodology for outlier correction
- What is the approach to data analysis?
- Impact of Data volatility on Forecasting
- Measuring volatility
- Event Impact - product life cycle, promotions and pricing.
12:30 PM Lunch Break
1:30 PM Guest Speaker:
- Simple Model of Demand
- Demand Volatility
- Predictable and unpredictable volatility
- Illustration of Demand components
- Key Components of a Demand Plan
- Understanding the components - Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality
2:45 PM Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
3:00 PM Modeling & Graphical Decomposition (Cont’ed)

Graphical Decomposition
Forecasting by Decomposition using Excel
SKU Segmentaion for Forecast Modeling
Modeling by Exception

4:30 PM Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants

8:30 AM Forecast Errors and Model Diagnostic
- Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
- Errors over time vs. Errors Across Products
- Model Errors defined
- Definition of MPE, MAPE and RMSE
- Model Diagnostics through Forecast Error
9:30 AM Modeling & Model Diagnostics
Introduction to Forecast Modeling

Qualities of a good Statistical Forecast
Balancing between Model Fit vs. Model Robustness
Time Series versus Multi-Variate Methods
Averages
First Order Exponential Smoothing or Constant Models
Holt Models to accommodate Trend
Holt Winters Models
Family of Smoothing Models

Exercise on Modeling
10:30 AM Morning Break
10:45 AM Modeling (cont’d)

Exponential Trend and Dampening
Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models
How to set up a simple forecast model in Excel
Multiple Linear Regression Models in Excel
Croston’s Model for modeling intermittent demand

12:30 PM Lunch Break
1:30 PM Discussion and answers to assigned exercises
2:30 PM Coffee Break
2:45 PM Measuring Forecast Performance

Forecast errors and actionability
Sources of Forecast Error
Definition of Demand Planning Metrics – WAPE and Bias
Types of Bias
SKU Mix Error
Error Analysis for continuous improvement
Exception Management through Pareto principles
Summary of Error Reduction approaches

Pricing

10% discount for groups of 3 or more. For special Hotel pricing, please call the office at (781) 995-0685.

Consulting

Diagnostic | DP Design | Exception Management | S&OP | Solutions

Training

Demand Planning | S&OP | Retail Forecasting | Supply Chain Analysis: » Value Chain Metrics » Inventory Optimization | Supply Chain Collaboration

Industry

Knowledge Base

Planning: » Budgeting » S&OP | Metrics: » Demand Metrics » Inventory » Customer Service | Collaboration: » VMI & CMI » Account Based Forecasting
Forecasting: » Causal Modeling » Market Modeling » Ship to Share | For Students